The result for the Claremont by-election is one from which many conclusions can be drawn - it just depends on the outlook you choose and few of them will be safe.
For Labour, the election of new councillor Katie Donnelli-Hunn is evidence that they can stand up to Reform UK’s popularity in Blackpool and maybe even that they can win elections under Andy Burnham that they might have lost under Keir Starmer.
For Reform UK, and Mark Butcher, it was an extremely close result on the night. You should always exercise caution when trying to assume that the 79 people who voted for Restore would naturally want a Reform UK councillor rather than a Labour one. Things are rarely that straightforward.
But the truth remains that those 79 votes would’ve been enough to see Mark Butcher elected for the first time. That will be frustrating for Reform UK - who will have one eye on the same happening in the future elections.
Both of those things can be true at once - it is a result for Labour to be pleased with in a seat they will have been very concerned about losing. But it is also evidence that no seat is safe. In 2023, Lynn Williams and the late Ivan Taylor returned 538 and 504 votes respectively in being elected. The next candidate was on 222 votes.
In those elections, the turnout was 19.19% - and while 20.02% this time could be viewed as disappointing on the surface - it is an improvement on what happened during the last full elections.
What all of this means is that there are precious few safe conclusions to draw from the result.
Cllr Donnelli-Hunn told The Blackpool Lead after the result was announced: “I feel ecstatic. I am so happy that the residents of Claremont have seen how hard I want to work, have believed in me and that they’ve gone out and voted. It really means the world to me.
“I think it’s understandable that some people can be frustrated [with Labour] but I know firsthand from working with Blackpool Labour how hard they have worked. Especially Lynn Williams and Ivan Taylor in the ward of Claremont.
“I think it’s fair that people have their suspicions, they’ve trusted me and trusted what I’ve said on the doors. I’m going to work hard, work with the local council and work with all the different organisations to ensure that they continue putting their trust in me moving forward.”
The result had become apparent about thirty minutes before the result was formally announced. It was going to be a Labour victory - but it was going to be close. Votes were recounted. It was a gap of 39 in the end.
Mark Butcher, who appeared emotional at another electoral defeat but came closer than ever and could feel confident about any future elections, was aware of the result but stayed until the official confirmation to congratulate Katie in person. It was a small bit of class at the end of a campaign that has been incredibly heated. He will be back.
But for Cllr Jim O’Neill, the longest-serving Reform UK councillor in Blackpool, it was a frustrating result.
He told The Blackpool Lead: “We want to congratulate Katie on winning, but Mark fought a fantastic campaign in Claremont - which has been a very safe seat for Labour for decades. We took this so close, and that proves there are no safe seats anymore.
“But the headline is that if we want to remove Labour, the right-of-centre has to get behind Reform UK. What we’ve just seen there is a demonstration of what happens when we split the votes.”
“I’m not really sure that there has been a Burnham bounce. The last time I dropped an egg, it had more of a bounce than what Burnham has done in Blackpool.
“I look forward to seeing Katie in the chamber at Blackpool Council.”
For the other parties, there is little to conclude. The Conservatives and Restore Britain broke past 50 votes - just - while the Lib Dems, Greens and the independent candidate trailed behind. For all the talk of a more splintered electorate, there was a clear acknowledgement this was a two-horse race. The Lib Dems did not campaign - the Greens were ‘testing the ground’.
Such scenarios are likely to repeat when there are full elections - more local government reorganisation drama notwithstanding - for Blackpool Council in May 2027. Every seat will be up for grabs, and Blackpool Council as a whole.
There was a nod to battles of the past if you were to glance at the guestlist for this by-election. Alongside names like Mark Butcher were Chris Webb and even Scott Benton. The latter two did not show, ultimately.
Reform UK will not walk away from this result feeling like they can’t take control of the authority - but Labour may feel more confident of holding on than they might have done a few months ago too. So overall there is very little to safely say other than 2027 will be a fierce contest.
This by-election was called after the death of Cllr Ivan Taylor - who at the time was the longest serving councillor in the whole of the UK. For Labour, his absence was especially noteworthy.
Cllr Lynn Williams, leader of Blackpool Council, told The Blackpool Lead: “This is my first election that I’ve ever played any part in that I’ve not had him by my side or at the end of a telephone, so I’m quite emotional really.
“It has been a really hard election. Not just because we’ve lost Ivan but also because of the undercurrents, more so than any other election that I’ve been involved in.
“We’re very grateful for the residents of Claremont that voted for Katie, but for those that didn’t, we’re there to represent everybody and it’s back to work tomorrow.”
Full result
Kevan Benfold (Lib Dems): 18
Paula Brooksbank (Restore Britain): 79
Mark Butcher (Reform UK): 419
Katie Donnelli-Hunn (Labour): 458 - elected
Rob Jones (Green Party): 44
Kim Knight (Independent): 16
John Thomson (Conservative): 62
The assumtpion that Restore Britain voters would back Reformatives and their non-stop, revolving door candidate Mark Butcher, is a wrongful one. Those voters ate drawn to our message and policies. Not to Reform, the Tory Party Mk2.